Ruotsalaista analyysia. Suomen hinnat ovat kuitenkin suoraan kytköksissä Ruotsiin.
Vesivarastojen taso alhainen, kaasun hinta noussut ja kaasuvarantojen taso alhainen, manner euroopan ja pohjoismaiden hintaero kaventunut, kylmää myös keskisessä euroopassa. Ko. tekijät kohottannee pösän hintaa kesään asti.
The hydrological balance – the flows in and out of the hydroelectric dams – is now at minus 20 TWh, according to Bixia, which is a full 30 TWh lower than last year. The weaker the hydrological balance, the higher the electricity prices, as there is less water available for electricity production. The last time the situation was this strained was during the winter of 2022–2023.
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The fact that it has been cold even in Europe has driven up fuel prices, which also affects electricity prices in Scandinavia to some extent.
– We will not make up for this deficit in just a few weeks. We will end the winter with low levels in the water reservoirs and this will likely affect electricity prices at least until the summer, says Johan Sigvardsson.
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The European gas storage capacity is now just under 45 percent – which is just over 11 percentage points lower than at the same time last year and only 5 percent higher than during the energy crisis in 2022.
– In recent weeks, the price of gas has risen by around 40 percent. This is partly due to colder weather on the continent and thus increased demand, and partly to the fact that European gas stocks are significantly lower than normal. And high gas prices mean higher electricity prices when the wind dies down. It is very likely that spring electricity prices will be higher than last year, especially in light of the strong hydrology then, says Magnus Thorstensson.
Det kalla vädret har lett till stadigt högre elpriser i hela landet. Systempriset på elbörsen landar på en dryg krona i januari, vilket är en fördubbling jämfört med 2025. Sämre vattentillgång i vattenkraften och ökade gaspriser på kontinenten kan påverka elpriset även under kommande månader...
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